Rockland, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

676
FXUS61 KGYX 190624
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
224 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable and dry weather continues today, but chances for
rain and thunderstorms will increase on Sunday. It is looking
more likely that storms may be strong to severe and bring a
threat for large hail and damaging winds. Once that front clears
the area Sunday night, next week will return to fair and
seasonable weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thru sunrise will be watching the development of valley fog.
Some signs starting to show on nighttime microphysics satellite
product in the upper CT valley...and that should gradually work
south thru the valley.

Quiet day on tap today. Comfortable temps and continued lower
humidity. With waters around Penobscot Bay still below 60
degrees the Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sat night looks largely dry...at least until very late or more
likely early Sun. That is when things start to get interesting
with respect to the convective forecast.

In the morning...steeper lapse rates are forecast to advect into
the area. Along that boundary WAA may be enough to pop off a few
isolated storms in the early hours of the day. These will be
elevated if they do form...with the higher impact storms
expected for Sun afternoon and evening.

As the front sags into the forecast area temps will surge into
the 80s ahead of it and dewpoints will be on the rise again. The
lack of truly steep lapse rates will preclude higher
instability...but the forecast should be sufficient for
1000-1500 J/kg. What we will have more of an abundance of is
shear. Forecasts are in the 30 to 45 kt range...more than enough
to organize updrafts. ECMWF EFI product is showing that a
significant portion of ensemble members feature that favorable
CAPE/shear overlap. The extended ranges of CAM guidance are
quite robust with convection in the afternoon...and SPC HREF
probabilities of strong UH tracks across the forecast area have
increased...especially from the lower Kennebec River Valley into
the southern half of NH. Based on forecast soundings both large
hail and damaging winds would be possible. In addition SPC has
upgraded a large portion of the forecast area to a slight risk
for severe storms on Day 2...Sun. With all that in mind I have
added severe wording in the slight risk area

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overnight long term update...01z NBM has been blended into the
latest forecast for the long term and yields little change. Fair
and seasonable weather expected Sunday night and onward until
out next chance for rain late in the week.

Previously...

After a cold front pushes through, drier conditions take hold
of New England through Wednesday. Late week, low pressure passes
to the north bringing frontal systems through New England as
well as the chance for rain.


&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread VFR conditions today...once some patchy
valley fog lifts after sunrise. On Sun SHRA/TSRA become more
likely with local MVFR or lower conditions. South of the mtns
TSRA may be strong...with gusty to damaging winds and hail
possible.

Long Term...A cold front passing Sunday night will improve
conditions with wind shifting NW Monday. Gusts to 25 kt will be
possible before slackening Monday night. VFR continues into Tues
and Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
thresholds. A front will approach the waters Sun afternoon.
Patchy fog will likely develop...staying mainly along the
Midcoast and Penobscot Bay waters. Showers and thunderstorms
will move over the waters in the late afternoon and evening
hours. Some storms may be strong to severe with strong wind
gusts and large hail possible.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions Sun night - Wed. A cold front
passes by Monday morning. Showers/storms may accompany the
frontal passage, with a NW wind shift.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for MEZ027-028.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Baron/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Baron/Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Ekster